Two Tides Research

Gigawatt-Year: The Unit That Makes AI Economics Legible

A gigawatt-year is one gigawatt sustained for a year: 8,760 GWh. Why every honest comparison between build cost and rent happens in this unit.

By Marco Wade · 31 October 2026 · 4 min read
Gigawatt-year (GW-year): one gigawatt of capacity sustained for one year, equal to 8,760 gigawatt-hours or 8.76 terawatt-hours. Used to annualize rent so it can be compared with build cost.

Power is a rate and money is a flow, and the two only become comparable when you fix a period. A gigawatt-year is that period: one gigawatt of capacity sustained for one year, which is 8,760 gigawatt-hours, or 8.76 terawatt-hours of energy.

Why the unit exists

Build cost is a stock — $35–60 billion for a gigawatt, paid once. Rent is a flow — so many billion a year. Without a common denominator the two numbers cannot be put in the same sentence, and the industry puts them in the same sentence constantly. The gigawatt-year is what makes “does this asset pay back?” an answerable question.

The mistake it prevents

When a slide says “$110 billion per gigawatt”, the missing “per year” is doing a lot of work. Read as a stock, against a $50 billion build, the asset repays itself in six months. Read correctly, as an annual flow, the comparison becomes: how many years of rent does it take to cover the build?

FigurePer gigawatt-yearPayback on a $50B build
Long-contract rent$8–12BFour to six years
Owner break-even at 15% return$11.6BRoughly the contract term
Short or spot rent$40–50BAbout a year
Quoted as “revenue”$110BSix months, which is the tell

The last row is the one that should look wrong. Assets that pay back in six months do not get rented and financed and litigated over for five years; they get bought. When a payback period is that short, the number above it is usually not revenue.

A sanity check anyone can run

Multiply the energy by a price. At $50 per megawatt-hour — a plausible wholesale power price — a gigawatt-year of electricity is worth about $438 million. That is not what the asset sells. It sells tokens, at prices set by model quality and scarcity, which is why the same 8.76 terawatt-hours can be worth $10 billion or $110 billion depending on assumptions nobody states.

The unit does not tell you which of those is right. It tells you which one a given slide is claiming.

The full treatment, with the contracts and the interviews behind these numbers, runs in the letter.

Read it in Two Tides
Free to read. Paid tiers open 1 December.
Sources and method. Definitions follow how these terms are used in capacity contracts and in company disclosures, not textbook usage. Figures are from the sources named on the flagship data page.

Research, not advice. This page is research and commentary on an industry. It is not investment, legal or engineering advice, and not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Figures are the best estimate available at the time of writing; where one rests on a single source, the text says so.

Cite this page as: Quorsio, "Gigawatt-Year: The Unit That Makes AI Economics Legible", November 2026, with a link to this URL. Short excerpts with attribution are welcome. Republishing the page in full, including its tables and charts, needs written permission: hello@quorsio.com.